Factors Leading to Different Viability Predictions for a Grizzly Bear Data Set

Population viability analysis programs are being used increasingly in research and management applications, but there has not been a systematic study of the congruence of different program predictions based on a single data set. We performed such an analysis using four population viability analysis computer programs: GAPPS, INMAT, RAMAS/AGE, and VORTEX. The standardized demographic rates used in all programs were generalized from hypothetical increasing and decreasing grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) populations. Idiosyncracies of input format for each program led to minor differences in intrinsic growth rates that translated into striking differences in estimates of extinction rates and expected population size. In contrast, the addition of demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and inbreeding costs caused only a small divergence in viability predictions. But, the addition of density dependence caused large deviations between the programs despite our best attempts to use the same density-dependent functions. Population viability programs differ in how density dependence is incorporated, and the necessary functions are difficult to parameterize accurately. Thus, we recommend that unless data clearly suggest a particular density-dependent model, predictions based on population viability analysis should include at least one scenario without density dependence. Further, we describe output metrics that may differ between programs; development of future software could benefit from standardized input and output formats across different programs.     

Risk-adequate motor underwriting of automated vehicles: a qualitative evaluation using German focus groups

The advent of automated vehicles is already taking place and will significantly disrupt the motor insurance industry. The shift from the human driver to the system as the driver cannot be reflected in the current insurance risk assessment. This call for an amendment of the insurance underwriting was discussed with German experts from both the primary insurance and reinsurance sector with their professional background on motor insurance. Based on the findings, we propose an alternative method to underwrite automated vehicles of level 4 & 5 using an enhanced telematics approach which considers new risk categories such as systems used and the transformed role of the driver as the general user of the automated vehicle.

     

The Use of Natural Systems to Remediate Groundwater: Department of Energy Experience at the Savannah River Site

Natural remediation is moving toward the forefront as engineers clean groundwater at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a major Department of Energy (DOE) installation near Aiken, South Carolina. This article reviews two successful, innovative remediation methods currently being deployed: biosparging to treat chlorinated solvents and phytoremediation to address tritium in groundwater. The biosparging system reintroduces oxygen into the groundwater and injects nutrient compounds for in‐situ remediation. The system has greatly reduced the concentrations of trichloroethylene (TCE) and vinyl chloride in wells downgradient from a sanitary landfill (SLF). Phytoremediation is an emerging technology that promises effective and inexpensive cleanup of certain hazardous wastes. Using natural processes, plants can break down, trap and hold, or transpire contaminants. This article discusses the use of phytoremediation to reduce the discharge of tritium to an on‐site stream at SRS. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals Inc. *     

Plants as biomarkers for monitoring heavy metal contaminants on landfill sites using sequential extraction and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrophotometry (ICP-AES)

There have been a number of studies investigating metal uptake in plants on contaminated landfill sites, but little on their role as biomarkers to identify metal mobility for continuous monitoring purposes. Vegetation can be used as a biomonitor of site pollution, by identifying the mobilisation of heavy metals and by providing an understanding of their bioavailability. Plants selected were the common nettle (Uritica Dioica), bramble (Rubus Fruticosa) and sycamore (Acer Pseudoplatanus). A study of the soil fractionation was made to investigate the soil properties that are likely to influence metal mobility and a correlation exercise was undertaken to investigate if variations in concentration of metals in vegetation can reflect variations in concentration of the metals in soil. The soil was digested using aqua regia in a microwave closed vessel. The vegetation was digested using both microwave and a hydrogen peroxide-nitric acid mixture, refluxed on a heating block and a comparison made. The certified reference materials (CRMs) used were Standard Reference Material (SRM) 1547, peach leaves for vegetation (NIST) and for soil CRM 143R, sewage sludge-amended soil (BCR). The relative standard deviations (RSDs) were 2-6% for the analyses. Our findings show evidence of phytoextraction by some plants, (especially bramble and nettle), with certain plants, (sycamore) exhibiting signs of phytostabilisation. The evidence suggests that there is a degree of selectivity in metal uptake and partitioning within the plant compartments. It was also possible to correlate mobility phases of certain metals (Pb, Cu and Zn) using the soil and plant record. Zn and Cu exhibited the greatest potential to migrate from the roots to the leaves, with Pb found principally in the roots of ground vegetation. Our results suggest that analysis of bramble leaves, nettle leaves and roots can be used to monitor the mobility of Pb in the soil with nettle, bramble and sycamore leaves to monitor Cu and Zn.     

Evaluating the Effect of a Mechanical Adjunct to Improve the Installation of Child Restraint Systems to Vehicles

Objectives: We explored if an alternative CRS design that utilized a mechanical adjunct to amplify the force applied to the adult seat belt (intervention CRS) results in more accurate and secure attachment between the CRS and the vehicle compared to similar CRS models that use LATCH or the existing adult seat belt. We conducted three separate studies to address this question and additionally explored: (1) the contribution of prior CRS installation experience (Study 1), (2) the value-added of CRS labeling (Study 2), and (3) paper-based vs. video instructions (Study 3).

Methods: In Studies 1 and 2 we assessed a forward facing combination CRS design (intervention CRS) compared to a commercially available LATCH equipped model (control CRS) and in Study 3 we conducted a similar study using a convertible model of both the intervention and control CRS. Participants installed both CRS in a contemporary minivan and could choose which type of attachment to use for the control CRS (LATCH or seat belt); order of installation was counter-balanced. Evaluators systematically examined installations for accuracy and security.

Results: Study 1: A greater proportion of participants in both the experienced and inexperienced groups was able to securely install the intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: (45% vs. 16%, p =.0001 for experienced) and (37% vs. 6%, p =.003 for inexperienced). No differences between the CRS were observed for accuracy of installation in either user group. Study 2: A greater proportion of participants were able to securely install the enhanced intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: (62% vs. 9%, p =.001). The intervention CRS demonstrated reduced installation accuracy: (30% vs. 61%, p =.001). Study 3: A greater proportion of participants was able to securely install the intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: 79% vs. 66% p =.03, but this effect was smaller than in the previous studies. Participants were less likely to achieve an accurate installation with the intervention CRS compared to the control CRS: 54% vs. 79%, p =.004. Common accuracy errors in each study included twisting or misrouting the seatbelt when installing the intervention CRS.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that novel CRS designs that utilize mechanical advantage to facilitate attachment of the CRS to the vehicle result in a tighter installation compared to LATCH equipped models, but an increase in accuracy errors occurred.     

OHP–APT 2002 gravity wave campaign: waves,turbulence and forecasts

In July 2002, a multi-sensor campaign was conducted in southern France to investigate the hypothesized connection between gravity waves and optical turbulence. A generalized scidar (GS) was mounted on the 1.93 m diameter telescope at l’Observatoire de Haute-Provence (OHP). The GS provides continuous profiles of optical turbulence with 300 m vertical resolution from telescope altitude up to 25 km. Thermosondes, which provide in situ measurement of optical turbulence by measuring temperature variance, were launched at the OHP site and at a site approximately 20 km west-northwest of OHP. Gravity wave activity was deduced from temperature and wind velocity measured by radiosondes, which are part of the thermosonde system. In this paper, gravity waves were analyzed using techniques for simple two-dimensional mountain waves, with only fair results. Mesoscale models were run at moderately high resolution for the period. The forecasts were analyzed for wave activity, and a post processor model was used to diagnose the optical turbulence. Mountain waves were evident in the forecast, but quantitative comparison showed the forecast to be inadequate in predicting wave strength. The forecast optical turbulence was in fair agreement with measurements with notable exceptions. This paper is declared a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged. Presented at the Turbulence and Waves in Stably Stratified Atmospheric Shear Flows: Measurements, High Resolution Simulations and Numerical Prediction Challenges Conference, 13–15 September 2004, Lighthill Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University College London, London, UK.     

Directional biases in back trajectories caused by model and input data

Back trajectory analyses are often used for source attribution estimates in visibility and other air quality studies. Several models and gridded meteorological datasets are readily available for generation of trajectories. The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) tracer study of July to October 1999 provided an opportunity to evaluate trajectory methods and input data against tracer concentrations, particulate data, and other source attribution techniques. Results showed evidence of systematic biases between the results of different back trajectory model and meteorological input data combinations at Big Bend National Park during the BRAVO. Most of the differences were because of the choice of meteorological data used as input to the trajectory models. Different back trajectories also resulted from the choice of trajectory model, primarily because of the different mechanisms used for vertical placement of the trajectories. No single model or single meteorological data set was found to be superior to the others, although rawinsonde data alone are too sparse in this region to be used as the only input data, and some combinations of model and input data could not be used to reproduce known attributions of tracers and simulated sulfate.     

EROD and CYP1A protein in channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) from an urban estuary relative to that in benzo[a]pyrene-exposed hatchery specimens

Bottom-feeding fish such as flounder and killifish have been widely used in monitoring hepatic monooxygenase induction in polluted water bodies. While channel catfish are often utilized in tissue monitoring of fresh and estuarine water bodies, few data are available on their use in environmental monitoring of hepatic monooxygenase activity. In this project, the presence of CYP1A protein was verified in channel catfish through recognition by Mab 1-12-3, an antibody which recognizes the CYP1A homologue in a variety of teleost species. CYP1A protein levels and 7-ethoxyresorufin-o-deethylase (EROD) activity in laboratory control and benzo-a-pyrene (BaP)-challenged channel catfish were compared to those in feral channel catfish from Back River, an urban estuarine tributary to Chesapeake Bay. Though more variable, mean CYP1A protein levels in the field-collected fish were similar to those of the BaP-induced laboratory fish. However, EROD activity of the Back River fish was less than one half that observed in the BaP-induced laboratory fish. When normalized to CYP1A protein levels, EROD activity was slightly lower in the Back River fish than either the laboratory control or BaP-treated fish. This finding may indicate possible inhibition or inactivation of the CYP1A protein in the feral fish.     

Waste site hazard assessment: a taxonomy of current methods and criteria

Dozens of schemes have been developed for assessing the hazards and implicit risks posed by waste disposal sites in the United States. Effective hazard-assessment processes guide decision makers, policy makers, and the public toward more appropriate risk management solutions. Just as in quantitative risk assessment, however, the utility of a hazard assessment scheme depends upon the applicability and totality of the parameters, as well as upon the validity of the assumptions and logic underlying that process. Examination of the range of hazard assessment methods that have been employed reveals some common limitations and a universe of applicable parameters. Understanding the scope of United States efforts is vital to the effective transfer of hazard assessment technology to waste site stakeholders in other industrialized countries. A useful set of modeling criteria is provided as a foundation for future application of the hazard assessment concept at the thousands of waste sites worldwide where hazards are yet to be investigated.     

OHP02 gravity wave campaign in relation to optical turbulence

Herein we present a campaign dedicated to the detection and the characterization of Gravity Waves (GW) in the Earth’s atmosphere in relation to the generation of Optical Turbulence (OT). The observations took place in France from 17 to 24 July 2002 at the Haute Provence Observatory (OHP) and simultaneously at the Sirene Observatory, some 20 km apart. From both sites, several balloons were launched that measured the classical PTU-Wind profiles and additionally the structure constant of the temperature field vertical profiles. A Generalized Scidar (GS) technique was implemented at the 1.93 m-diameter OHP telescope, providing profiles every minute. From our observations, a significant amount of GW activity was observed at both sites, but without clear evidence of correlation between the two sites. It seems from our observations that a wide spectrum of GW is present at a given altitude and that this could result in a lack of correlation between observations made from two sites 20 km apart. Most GW are non-stationary with long horizontal wavelengths (λ ∼ 100–200 km), kilometric vertical wavelengths (λ ~ 0.5–2 km) and long intrinsic period (T ~ 2–15 h). They belong in the category of “hydrostatic rotating or non-rotating waves”. Layers of optical turbulence detected by balloons and the Scidar technique correlate well with regions of GW activity. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.